Energy from Waste Capacity report

There have been several changes within Scotland impacting the supply and demand for Energy from Waste (EfW) infrastructure since the 2024 Landfill Ban Assurance Study. This report aims to provide a revised understanding of the key infrastructure capacity, based on information sourced from operators, data modelling and analysis of these findings.

Key findings:

• By 2028, there will be provision for a maximum of circa 2.37 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of permitted EfW capacity, where facilities in advanced construction or with targeted commissioning dates are completed on time. 
• To inform operational capacity it was calculated that, based on Scottish and UK averages of waste combusted, circa 1.9 6 - 2.0 8 Mtpa of operational capacity could be supplied by 2028. 
  The model estimated the EfW capacity gap at 0.36 - 0.53Mtpa in 2026, depending on the waste arisings scenario modelled (from ‘business as usual’ to ‘self-sufficiency with high recycling’). 
• The capacity gap is estimated to close as new EfW construction is completed, estimated between 2028 and 2030, and depending on the waste arisings scenario modelled. 
• There is limited headroom in the Scottish EfW fleet. The theoretical headroom calculated as part of the modelling, which may not be available in practice, is unlikely to be sufficient to provide the required contingency capacity for annual planned shutdowns, and any prolonged unplanned shutdown of a large EfW facility would require an export solution, unless landfilling in Scotland was permitted temporarily in emergency situations. 
• Contrary to the previous analysis published in 2024, the updated analysis undertaken does not indicate significant EfW overcapacity in Scotland in any of the scenarios modelled – this reflects the more recent waste arisings data and updated construction plans and timescales. Only the EfW capacity surplus modelled for the ‘self-sufficiency with high recycling’ scenario, peaking at circa 500ktpa from 2030, would likely to be sufficient to cover both current exports and potentially also provide sufficient contingency during shutdowns.